Famine in Gaza is imminent, warns IPC
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) partnership issued a dire warning regarding the escalating humanitarian crisis in Gaza on Monday.
Despite previous alerts, the necessary conditions to avert famine have not materialized, and the latest evidence indicates an imminent threat of famine in the northern governorates.
According to the IPC’s acute food insecurity analysis conducted in December 2023, there was a looming risk of famine by the end of May 2024 if immediate action was not taken to cease hostilities and ensure sustained access to essential supplies and services for the population.
Regrettably, the situation has not improved since then, and the severity of the crisis has only intensified. Based on current projections, famine is anticipated to strike anytime between mid-March and May 2024, posing a grave threat to the lives and well-being of countless individuals in Gaza.
According to the most likely scenario, both North Gaza and Gaza Governorates are classified in IPC Phase 5 (Famine) with reasonable evidence, with 70% (around 210,000 people) of the population in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe).
Continued conflict and the near-complete lack of access to the northern governorates for humanitarian organizations and commercial trucks will likely compound heightened vulnerabilities and extremely limited food availability, access and utilization, as well as access to healthcare, water, and sanitation.
The southern governorates of Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis, and the Governorate of Rafah, are classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). However, in a worst-case scenario, these governorates face a risk of Famine through July 2024.
The entire population in the Gaza Strip (2.23 million) is facing high levels of acute food insecurity. Between mid-March and mid-July, in the most likely scenario and under the assumption of an escalation of the conflict including a ground offensive in Rafah, half of the population of the Gaza Strip (1.11 million people) is expected to face catastrophic conditions (IPC Phase 5), the most severe level in the IPC Acute Food Insecurity scale.
This is an increase of 530,000 people (92 percent) compared to the previous analysis.