OPINION: Lifting the Arms Embargo on Somalia: A Game-Changer for Security and Stability? – Abdiqani 

Mogadishu – Somalia, a country that has been plagued by decades of civil war, violence, and instability, is now facing a historic opportunity to rebuild its security sector and restore its sovereignty. the Security Council adopted Resolution 2626 (2022) on 1 December 2023, which lifted the arms embargo on Somalia by a vote of 14 in favour to none against with one abstention (France). 

This is a historic decision that will have significant implications for the security and stability of Somalia and the region. The resolution recognized the progress made by the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) in implementing the political roadmap, advancing the federal system, and enhancing the security and stability of the country. 

It also expressed the international community’s support for the FGS’s efforts to establish effective and accountable security institutions, combat terrorism and violent extremism, and protect human rights and the rule of law.

The lifting of the arms embargo is a significant milestone for Somalia, as it will enable the Government of Somalia to acquire weapons and equipment that are essential for its security forces to perform their duties and responsibilities. It will also facilitate the transition of security responsibility from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) to the Somali security forces, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2024. 

However, the lifting of the arms embargo also comes with challenges and risks, such as the potential misuse or diversion of arms, the proliferation of illegal arms trade, and the escalation of armed conflicts and violence. 

Therefore, the FGS and its international partners need to ensure that the arms acquisition and management process is transparent, accountable, and compliant with the relevant international standards and obligations.

In this feature article, we will explore the implications of the lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia, both in terms of opportunities and challenges. We will also examine the current state and future prospects of the Somali security sector, and the role and impact of the international community in supporting its development and reform. We will draw on the views and opinions of various stakeholders, such as government officials, security experts, civil society representatives, and ordinary citizens, to provide a comprehensive and balanced analysis of this important and timely issue.

The first benefit of lifting the arms embargo on Somalia is that it will enable the Somali government to fight terrorism and enhance security by acquiring weapons and equipment to counter the threats posed by extremist groups like Al-Shabaab and secure its borders. This is a crucial issue for Somalia, as terrorism has been one of the main sources of violence, instability, and human suffering in the country for the past three decades.

According to the Global Terrorism Index 2022, Somalia ranked as the third most affected country by terrorism in the world, after Afghanistan and Iraq. The report stated that Somalia experienced 1,448 terrorist incidents, resulting in 3,253 deaths and 2,978 injuries in 2021.  

Al-Shabaab has been waging a violent insurgency against the FGS and its allies, such as ATMIS and the United States, since 2006. The group has been using various tactics, such as suicide bombings, assassinations, kidnappings, ambushes, and raids, to target government officials, security forces, civilians, and foreign personnel. Al-Shabaab has been on a mission to cripple the economy and the dignity of the Somali population. 

During their reign of terror, they dehumanised people, imposed unbearable tax on businesses and refused economic activities in the areas they control. 

The group has also been accused of committing human rights violations, such as torture, executions, amputations, and stoning, against those who oppose or disobey its authority.

The Somali Government, with the support of ATMIS and other international partners, has been trying to combat Al-Shabaab and restore security and stability in the country. However, the Government has faced many challenges and constraints in its efforts, such as the lack of adequate weapons and equipment, the limited capacity and training of its security forces, the fragmentation and rivalry among the different security agencies. 

The arms embargo on Somalia, which was imposed by the UN Security Council in 1992 to prevent the flow of weapons to the warring factions during the civil war, has also been a major obstacle for the FGS to acquire the necessary weapons and equipment to fight Al-Shabaab and secure its borders.

The lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia, therefore, will provide the FGS with the opportunity to obtain the weapons and equipment that are essential for its security forces to perform their duties and responsibilities. The FGS will be able to procure the weapons and equipment that are appropriate for its needs and priorities, such as small arms, light weapons, ammunition, vehicles, communication devices, and protective gear. 

The FGS will also be able to diversify its sources and suppliers of weapons and equipment, and negotiate better prices and terms. The Somali Government will also be able to enhance the quality and quantity of its security forces, by providing them with better training, equipment, and incentives.

The lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia will also enable the FGS to fight Al-Shabaab more effectively and efficiently, by increasing its offensive and defensive capabilities, and reducing its dependence and reliance on ATMIS and other external actors. 

The Government of Somalia will be able to conduct more independent and coordinated operations against Al-Shabaab, and disrupt its activities and networks. The FGS will also be able to secure its borders and prevent the infiltration and smuggling of weapons, fighters, and funds by Al-Shabaab and other armed groups. The FGS will also be able to protect its population and territory from the attacks and threats of Al-Shabaab, and provide a safe and conducive environment for the delivery of humanitarian aid, development assistance, and public services.

The lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia will, therefore, have a positive impact on the fight against terrorism and the enhancement of security in the country. It will empower the FGS to take full responsibility and ownership of its security and stability, and to fulfill its obligations and commitments to the Somali people and the international community. It will also contribute to the peace and stability of the region and the world, by weakening and defeating one of the most dangerous and deadly terrorist groups in the world.

The second benefit of lifting the arms embargo on Somalia is that it will empower the Somali government to defend the nation by building and equipping its armed forces, which will increase its ability to protect its sovereignty and unity. This is a vital issue for Somalia, as the country has been struggling to maintain its territorial integrity and national identity in the face of internal and external challenges and threats.

Somalia has been experiencing a protracted state collapse and civil war since 1991, when the central government was overthrown by clan-based militias, who then fought among themselves for power and resources. The country has been divided into various regions and entities, some of which have declared autonomy or secession from the FGS, such as Somaliland, Puntland, Jubbaland, and Galmudug. 

The country has also been subject to foreign intervention and influence, both military and political, by neighbouring and regional countries, such as Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, Eritrea, and the United Arab Emirates, as well as by global powers, such as the United States, the European Union, and Turkey. 

These actors have pursued their own interests and agendas in Somalia, often at the expense of the FGS and the Somali people.

The Federal Government of Somalia, with the support of the international community, has been trying to restore its authority and legitimacy over the whole country, and to foster a sense of national unity and cohesion among the diverse and fragmented Somali society. However, the FGS has faced many difficulties and obstacles in its efforts, such as the lack of a strong and unified national army, the dependence and reliance on ATMIS and other foreign forces, the resistance and hostility of some regional and local actors, and the interference and meddling of some external actors. 

The arms embargo on Somalia, which was imposed by the UN Security Council in 1992 to prevent the flow of weapons to the warring factions during the civil war, has also been a major hindrance for the FGS to build and equip its armed forces, and to defend its nation.

The lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia, therefore, will provide the FGS with the opportunity to build and equip its armed forces, which are essential for its national defence and security. 

The FGS will be able to establish a professional, accountable, and inclusive national army, that represents and serves the Somali people, and that respects and upholds the human rights and the rule of law. 

The FGS will be able to procure the weapons and equipment that are suitable for its needs and priorities, such as tanks, artillery, aircraft, ships, and missiles. 

The FGS will also be able to diversify its sources and suppliers of weapons and equipment, and negotiate better prices and terms. The FGS will also be able to enhance the quality and quantity of its armed forces, by providing them with better training, equipment, and incentives.

The lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia will also enable the FGS to defend the nation more effectively and efficiently, by increasing its offensive and defensive capabilities, and reducing its dependence and reliance on ATMIS and other external actors. The FGS will be able to conduct more independent and coordinated operations to assert its control and authority over the entire country, and to resolve the disputes and conflicts with the regional and local actors. The FGS will also be able to protect its sovereignty and unity from the intervention and influence of the external actors, and to pursue its own interests and agendas in the regional and international arena. 

The FGS will also be able to protect its population and territory from the attacks and threats of the armed groups, such as Al-Shabaab, and to provide a safe and conducive environment for the delivery of humanitarian aid, development assistance, and public services.

The lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia will, therefore, have a positive impact on the defence of the nation and the enhancement of security in the country. It will empower the FGS to take full responsibility and ownership of its national defence and security, and to fulfill its obligations and commitments to the Somali people and the international community. 

It will also contribute to the peace and stability of the region and the world, by strengthening and consolidating one of the most fragile and vulnerable states in the world.

The third benefit of lifting the arms embargo on Somalia is that it will support the efforts for peace and stability by facilitating the transition of security responsibility from ATMIS to the Somali security forces, which will allow Somalia to take full ownership of its security and stability. This is a crucial issue for Somalia, as the country has been relying on the support and assistance of ATMIS and other international actors for its security and stability for the past 15 years.

ATMIS, which stands for the African Transition Mission in Somalia, is a regional peacekeeping mission that was authorized by the UN Security Council in 2007 to support the FGS in its efforts to restore peace and stability in Somalia. ATMIS is composed of troops and police from various African countries, such as Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, and Djibouti, as well as civilian and military experts from the African Union and other partners. 

ATMIS has been playing a vital role in Somalia, by providing security, protection, and humanitarian assistance to the Somali people, by supporting the political process and the federal system, by fighting against Al-Shabaab and other armed groups, and by training and mentoring the Somali security forces.

However, ATMIS is not meant to be a permanent solution for Somalia’s security and stability, but rather a temporary and transitional one. The ultimate goal of ATMIS is to hand over the security responsibility to the Somali security forces, and to withdraw from the country in a gradual and phased manner. This is in line with the Somali Transition Plan (STP), which was agreed upon by the FGS and its international partners in 2018, and which outlines the roadmap and the timeline for the security transition from ATMIS to the Somali security forces by the end of 2024. 

The STP also identifies the priority areas and the tasks for the security transition, such as the operational readiness of the Somali security forces, the stabilization of the recovered areas, the integration and reintegration of the former combatants, and the coordination and cooperation among the different stakeholders.

The lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia, therefore, will provide the FGS with the opportunity to facilitate the security transition from ATMIS to the Somali security forces, which are essential for the peace and stability of the country. The FGS will be able to accelerate the implementation of the STP, and to achieve the milestones and the benchmarks for the security transition. 

The FGS will also be able to enhance the operational readiness and the effectiveness of the Somali security forces, by providing them with the necessary weapons and equipment, training and mentoring, and command and control. 

The FGS will also be able to strengthen the coordination and cooperation among the different stakeholders, such as the FGS, the Federal Member States, the ATMIS, and the international partners, to ensure a smooth and successful security transition.

The lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia will also enable the FGS to take full ownership and leadership of its security and stability, by reducing its dependence and reliance on ATMIS and other external actors. The FGS will be able to assume the primary responsibility and accountability for the security and stability of the country, and to address the root causes and the drivers of the conflict and the violence. 

The FGS will also be able to foster a sense of national pride and confidence among the Somali people, and to demonstrate its commitment and capability to the international community. The FGS will also be able to create a conducive environment for the delivery of humanitarian aid, development assistance, and public services.

The lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia will, therefore, have a positive impact on the efforts for peace and stability in the country. It will support the FGS in its efforts to facilitate the security transition from ATMIS to the Somali security forces, and to take full ownership and leadership of its security and stability. It will also contribute to the peace and stability of the region and the world, by enabling Somalia to become a more secure and stable partner and actor in the regional and international arena.

The fourth benefit of lifting the arms embargo on Somalia is that it will strengthen the rule of law and border security by enhancing the capacity of the law enforcement agencies and preventing the illegal arms trade, terrorism, and other global threats. This is a vital issue for Somalia, as the country has been suffering from the lack of effective and accountable law enforcement and border management, which has enabled the proliferation and circulation of illicit weapons, the infiltration and movement of terrorists and criminals, and the violation and exploitation of the human rights and the natural resources of the Somali people.

According to the Small Arms Survey 2022, Somalia ranked as the second most armed country in the world, after Yemen, with an estimated 3.5 million small arms and light weapons in circulation, which is equivalent to one weapon for every three people. The report stated that most of these weapons were imported or smuggled into the country during the civil war, and that they have been used by various actors, such as the clan militias, the warlords, the armed groups, the security forces, and the civilians, for different purposes, such as fighting, protection, intimidation, and crime. The report also stated that the arms embargo on Somalia, which was imposed by the UN Security Council in 1992 to prevent the flow of weapons to the warring factions during the civil war, has been largely ineffective and violated by various actors, both internal and external, who have supplied weapons and ammunition to their allies and proxies in Somalia.

The FGS, with the support of the international community, has been trying to restore the rule of law and border security in the country, by establishing and reforming its law enforcement and border management agencies, such as the police, the customs, the immigration, and the coast guard. However, the FGS has faced many challenges and constraints in its efforts, such as the lack of adequate weapons and equipment, the limited capacity and training of its personnel, the fragmentation and rivalry among the different agencies, and the corruption and mismanagement of the sector. 

The arms embargo on Somalia, which was imposed by the UN Security Council in 1992 to prevent the flow of weapons to the warring factions during the civil war, has also been a major barrier for the FGS to acquire the necessary weapons and equipment to enforce the law and secure the borders.

The lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia, therefore, will provide the FGS with the opportunity to enhance the capacity and the effectiveness of its law enforcement and border management agencies, which are essential for the rule of law and border security. The FGS will be able to procure the weapons and equipment that are appropriate for its needs and priorities, such as pistols, rifles, shotguns, tear gas, handcuffs, batons, radios, scanners, and cameras. The FGS will also be able to diversify its sources and suppliers of weapons and equipment, and negotiate better prices and terms. The FGS will also be able to enhance the quality and quantity of its personnel, by providing them with better training, equipment, and incentives.

The lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia will also enable the FGS to strengthen the rule of law and border security more effectively and efficiently, by increasing its offensive and defensive capabilities, and reducing its dependence and reliance on ATMIS and other external actors. 

The FGS will be able to conduct more independent and coordinated operations to enforce the law and secure the borders, and to prevent and combat the illegal arms trade, terrorism, and other global threats. The FGS will also be able to protect its sovereignty and integrity from the intervention and influence of the external actors, and to pursue its own interests and agendas in the regional and international arena. 

The FGS will also be able to protect its population and territory from the attacks and threats of the armed groups, such as Al-Shabaab, and to provide a safe and conducive environment for the delivery of humanitarian aid, development assistance, and public services.

The lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia will, therefore, have a positive impact on the rule of law and border security in the country. It will empower the FGS to take full responsibility and ownership of its law enforcement and border management, and to fulfill its obligations and commitments to the Somali people and the international community. It will also contribute to the peace and stability of the region and the world, by reducing and eliminating one of the main sources and drivers of violence and instability in the world.

The fifth benefit of lifting the arms embargo on Somalia is that it will boost the state-building and nation-building process by improving the governance, public services, and economic development of Somalia, which will create opportunities for employment, trade, and investment, and improve the living standards of the Somali people. 

This is a vital issue for Somalia, as the country has been undergoing a complex and challenging transition from a failed state to a functioning and democratic state, and from a divided and war-torn society to a united and peaceful society.

Somalia has been undergoing a political transition since 2012, when the FGS was established as the first permanent and internationally recognized government in the country since 1991. 

The FGS, with the support of the international community, has been implementing a political roadmap, which includes the adoption of a provisional constitution, the formation of a federal system, the holding of elections, and the reconciliation and dialogue among the different stakeholders and regions in Somalia. 

The FGS has also been providing public services, such as health, education, water, and sanitation, to the Somali people, who have been deprived of these basic needs for a long time.

However, the FGS has faced many difficulties and obstacles in its state-building and nation-building efforts, such as the lack of adequate resources and capacity, the limited legitimacy and representation, the resistance and hostility of some regional and local actors, and the interference and meddling of some external actors. 

The arms embargo on Somalia, which was imposed by the UN Security Council in 1992 to prevent the flow of weapons to the warring factions during the civil war, has also been a major constraint for the FGS to improve its governance, public services, and economic development, and to create opportunities for employment, trade, and investment.

The lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia, therefore, will provide the FGS with the opportunity to improve its state-building and nation-building process, which are essential for the peace and stability of the country. The FGS will be able to mobilize more resources and capacity to implement its political roadmap, and to achieve its goals and objectives, such as the adoption of a permanent constitution, the completion of the federal system, the holding of credible and inclusive elections, and the reconciliation and dialogue among the different stakeholders and regions in Somalia. 

The FGS will also be able to provide more and better public services to the Somali people, and to improve their access and quality, especially in the areas of health, education, water, and sanitation. 

The FGS will also be able to stimulate and diversify its economic development, and to create more opportunities for employment, trade, and investment, both domestically and internationally.

The lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia will also enable the FGS to take full ownership and leadership of its state-building and nation-building process, by reducing its dependence and reliance on ATMIS and other external actors. The FGS will be able to assume the primary responsibility and accountability for the governance, public services, and economic development of the country, and to address the needs and aspirations of the Somali people. 

The FGS will also be able to foster a sense of national pride and confidence among the Somali people, and to demonstrate its commitment and capability to the international community. The FGS will also be able to create a conducive environment for the delivery of humanitarian aid, development assistance, and public services.

The lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia will, therefore, have a positive impact on the state-building and nation-building process in the country. It will support the FGS in its efforts to improve its governance, public services, and economic development, and to create opportunities for employment, trade, and investment. It will also contribute to the peace and stability of the region and the world, by enabling Somalia to become a more functional and democratic state, and a more united and peaceful society.

The lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia is a historic and significant decision that will have a profound impact on the security and stability of the country and the region. The decision will provide the FGS with the opportunity to acquire the weapons and equipment that are essential for its security forces to perform their duties and responsibilities, and to take full ownership and leadership of its security and stability. The decision will also support the FGS in its efforts to achieve its goals and objectives in the areas of fighting terrorism, defending the nation, facilitating the security transition, enforcing the law, and improving the governance, public services, and economic development. 

The decision will also contribute to the peace and stability of the region and the world, by enabling Somalia to become a more secure and stable partner and actor in the regional and international arena.

The lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia, however, also comes with challenges and risks, such as the potential misuse or diversion of arms, the proliferation of illegal arms trade, and the escalation of armed conflicts and violence. Therefore, the FGS and its international partners need to ensure that the arms acquisition and management process is transparent, accountable, and compliant with the relevant international standards and obligations. The FGS and its international partners also need to continue their cooperation and coordination in supporting the security sector reform, the political process, the humanitarian assistance, and the development assistance in Somalia.

The lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia is not a magic bullet that will solve all the problems and challenges that the country faces, but rather a necessary and important step that will create more opportunities and possibilities for the country to overcome its difficulties and obstacles, and to achieve its aspirations and potentials. 

The lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia is a testament to the progress and the resilience of the Somali people and the FGS, and a sign of the trust and the support of the international community. The lifting of the arms embargo on Somalia is a hope and a promise for a better and brighter future for Somalia and the region.

Mr. Abdiqani is a journalist working the Somali Media and other government affiliate media institutions. He is also a contributor to GTN.

The opinion piece reflects the views of the author and does not necessarily represent the opinions or views of Garissa Today or its affiliates.